John Harbaugh Took Over the Football Operation of a $12 Billion Business. Is He Changing the People or Fixing the System?

I'm a Giants fan. Have been my entire life.

And I'm watching John Harbaugh do something familiar.

Take control of an existing operation, install his own system, and decide which employees belong in it.

That's what I do when I acquire businesses.

I bring my operating system. I evaluate the people I've inherited. I keep those capable of executing, develop the ones worth developing, and replace those who don't fit.

Harbaugh didn't buy the Giants. He runs the coaching operation, while general manager Joe Schoen and the front office share responsibility for building the roster.

But here's where it gets interesting.

The Giants entered their October 25 game against Houston with 3 wins, 2 losses and 1 tie, leading the NFC East.

At this point in the season, Harbaugh isn't responding to a team already out of contention.

He's changing the people while the team is producing results.

His starting quarterback suffered a season ending injury. The Giants acquired another quarterback, Harbaugh benched a veteran who helped win games, his leading rusher's role shrank, and the team released a running back.

The injury wasn't a personnel decision. How the organization responds to it is.

Each decision has a cost.

And the Mara and Tisch families hired Harbaugh to make difficult coaching decisions.

I want to know whether the personnel changes are improving the Giants or whether Harbaugh is still trying to find enough people to make his system work.

Because the executive who installs the system owns the results.

Jaxson Dart opened the season as the Giants' quarterback.

Then a knee injury ended his regular season.

Jameis Winston took over and went 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 tie as the starter.

Entering Week 7, his season totals were a 57% completion rate, 957 passing yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions across five appearances. Those are season totals, not statistics limited to his four starts.

Nothing extraordinary.

But Winston was keeping the Giants competitive.

Then New York acquired J.J. McCarthy from Minnesota for a fifth round selection in the 2027 draft.

That happened on September 28, before Winston was benched.

So the Giants had added an alternative. That timing doesn't prove they had already decided to replace Winston. Harbaugh publicly backed Winston as the starter when the trade was discussed.

Against New Orleans on October 18, Winston threw two interceptions. Harbaugh replaced him in the fourth quarter with McCarthy.

McCarthy threw an interception on his first possession.

Then he led three scoring drives, threw for 243 yards and helped bring the Giants within seven points. New York scored 17 points with him at quarterback.

They still lost 34 to 27.

On October 21, Harbaugh selected McCarthy to start against Houston on October 25.

He said McCarthy gives the offense different options, and I understand the logic.

But I have a question.

What improvement does Harbaugh expect, and how will we know whether he gets it?

Winston wasn't incapable of winning games.

Harbaugh believes McCarthy can produce a better offense.

That's a management decision, not an established fact.

When I replace a manager who's producing acceptable results, I don't get credit merely for recognizing somebody else's potential.

The replacement has to produce.

And if it doesn't, I need to explain why I made the change.

Minnesota selected McCarthy tenth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Two years later, the Giants acquired him for a 2027 fifth round selection.

An attractive acquisition price on paper.

But what exactly did New York buy?

McCarthy's 2025 season in Minnesota gives us a starting point.

The Giants didn't acquire an established franchise quarterback.

They acquired a 23 year old former first round selection with considerable potential, an injury history, and more interceptions than touchdown passes during his first season as a starter.

The fifth round pick represents the draft consideration, not the total economic cost.

The Giants also take on the remaining obligations transferred with his player contract. They must invest coaching resources and game opportunities in evaluating him.

Every snap used to develop McCarthy is a snap another quarterback isn't taking.

That doesn't make the trade a bad investment.

It means the investment has to be measured properly.

The original price Minnesota paid in 2024 is irrelevant to what New York should commit in 2026.

The Giants have to determine whether McCarthy can create value in their system.

And the Giants still have to plan for Dart's return.

That means the larger franchise quarterback decision hasn't been settled.

Harbaugh is evaluating a potential long term asset while attempting to win games now.

If McCarthy becomes a productive starter, a fifth round acquisition could turn into an excellent transaction.

If he struggles, the small draft cost doesn't excuse poor personnel evaluation.

A cheap acquisition can still become an expensive mistake.

Cam Skattebo entered the Saints game with 294 rushing yards on 81 carries.

He was the Giants' leading rusher.

He also had four fumbles, including a costly one in overtime against Washington. Fumbles and fumbles lost are different statistics. I'm not saying all four resulted in lost possession.

Harbaugh had a legitimate reason to demand better ball security.

But against New Orleans, Skattebo played six offensive snaps and received zero carries.

Skattebo described his reduced role as punishment for his mistakes.

Harbaugh said Skattebo had not been benched and that the absence of carries wasn't by design.

Those are different explanations of what happened.

If the plan wasn't to eliminate Skattebo's rushing workload, how did the game end with your leading rusher never carrying the football?

The other running backs combined for 34 yards on 14 carries.

That's 2.43 yards per attempt.

Skattebo had averaged 3.63 yards per attempt entering the game.

Those numbers don't prove he would have performed better against New Orleans. Different carries and different circumstances produce different outcomes. They also don't establish that his earlier average was good enough.

But they do raise a question about the quality of the plan.

The Giants needed to correct his fumbling.

They also needed to run the football.

Did the allocation of work improve the operation, or did management create a second problem while trying to solve the first?

I've faced similar decisions in business.

A productive employee can have a weakness that needs correction.

I don't ignore it because the employee produces revenue.

But I also don't remove valuable production without understanding how the business will replace it.

Sometimes the answer is training.

Sometimes it's a different responsibility.

Sometimes it's termination.

The objective isn't demonstrating authority.

It's correcting the problem while protecting the operation.

Skattebo deserves accountability for his mistakes.

Harbaugh deserves accountability for how he handles the solution.

The Giants released Najee Harris on October 20, two days after the Saints game, creating another change in the running back room.

The next test is whether Skattebo returns to a meaningful role and whether the offense becomes more productive.

That result matters more than the message.

Forbes estimated the Giants' franchise value at $12 billion in September 2026, making them the third most valuable NFL team.

It also estimated revenue of $769 million and operating income of $181 million for the 2025 season. Forbes defines that operating income as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA. Its figures are net of stadium debt service.

These are Forbes estimates and calculations from them, not audited financial statements. The 15.6 figure is a value to revenue comparison, not a multiple of profit or a price established by a sale.

And a $12 billion franchise valuation doesn't mean ownership has $12 billion available to spend.

Franchise value reflects expectations about the future, the economics of the NFL, and the scarcity of teams available for acquisition.

The operating figures tell us something different.

The Giants are a substantial business generating hundreds of millions in estimated annual revenue.

They're also a family controlled enterprise with a long history and championship expectations.

The Mara and Tisch families didn't hire Harbaugh to explain why the previous operation failed.

They hired him to improve the football product.

That investment extends beyond the coach's compensation.

A new coaching operation uses staff, development resources, roster spending, and draft capital.

And management decisions can affect the value of investments made before the new executive arrived.

When McCarthy plays, ownership is evaluating more than the quarterback.

It's evaluating the coaching staff's ability to identify and develop talent.

When Skattebo sits, ownership is evaluating whether the staff can enforce accountability without compromising production.

That's how personnel decisions become capital decisions.

I wouldn't tell the Mara and Tisch families that each loss costs a specific number of millions.

We don't have the Giants' internal financial information needed to make that calculation.

The NFL's broadcasting and shared revenue structure gives a franchise financial protection that an ordinary local business doesn't have. Forbes' valuation also considers the team's market and stadium economics.

A team can lose games and still be profitable.

But that doesn't make losing irrelevant to the business.

Poor performance can affect demand for premium seats, merchandise, sponsorship opportunities, and the long term customer relationship. I'm identifying commercial risks, not reporting a measured decline in any of those categories for the Giants.

And unsuccessful personnel decisions can create additional costs through wasted contracts, lost development time, and replacement spending.

The important distinction is between the franchise's financial durability and its football operation's efficiency.

A valuable franchise can still have poorly managed personnel.

And a profitable company can still waste money.

Ownership should demand good decisions even when the business can afford bad ones.

A franchise quarterback can require years of development and a substantial commitment of money and draft capital.

But the biggest risk isn't simply selecting the wrong player.

It's failing to understand what kind of quarterback the system requires.

Harbaugh has Matt Nagy operating the offense.

McCarthy brings different physical abilities than Winston.

Dart has his own skill set and remains part of the longer term quarterback discussion.

That means the Giants must answer two separate questions.

Who gives the team the best opportunity to win now?

And who should receive the long term investment required to lead this offense?

Those don't have to be the same person.

I'd evaluate McCarthy over multiple starts rather than one afternoon in Houston.

I'd examine points produced per possession, turnovers, decision making, and how well the offense functions with him.

But I'd evaluate Nagy and Harbaugh at the same time.

If the quarterback struggles, is he making poor decisions?

Are the receivers failing to execute?

Is protection breaking down?

Or is the system asking the available personnel to do things they cannot consistently perform?

That's what ownership has to determine before committing more capital.

Replacing the quarterback doesn't automatically fix the business.

The coach has to prove that the system works with the people he selects.

I wouldn't give Harbaugh an automatic firing deadline.

I also wouldn't give him an unlimited excuse to continue changing personnel without results.

I'd examine three things.

First, the personnel decisions.

Did McCarthy improve the offense compared with the alternative?

Did Skattebo's reduced workload lead to corrected ball security, or did it simply remove production?

Are roster acquisitions and releases improving the available talent?

Second, the operating system.

Is the team scoring more efficiently?

Are turnovers declining?

Are players improving within their assigned roles?

Can the staff adapt when injuries change the available personnel?

Third, the direction of the business.

Are the Giants becoming a more competitive football team?

Are draft selections and player contracts being used efficiently?

Does ownership have a credible long term plan at quarterback?

And is the football operation moving closer to championship contention?

I'd examine individual decisions weekly, review sustained trends over several games, and evaluate the broader operating plan at the end of the season.

I'd also require Harbaugh to explain significant changes in advance.

What is the expected improvement?

What evidence supports the decision?

How much will it cost?

When should we expect to see results?

And what will management do if the change fails?

Those are the questions I'd ask any executive operating a business I owned.

I'd give Harbaugh the authority to run the coaching operation, with the front office accountable for its part of roster construction.

He earned the opportunity to implement his approach when the Giants hired him.

But authority and accountability come together.

Winston was helping the Giants win games.

Harbaugh chose McCarthy.

Now he has to demonstrate that the change gives the offense something valuable enough to justify it.

Skattebo made mistakes.

His role shrank under Harbaugh's staff.

Now the staff has to demonstrate that its handling of the problem improved discipline without unnecessarily weakening the running game.

And if neither decision works, ownership needs to evaluate the management responsible for them.

That's the part of acquisitions people sometimes forget.

Installing your system doesn't make your system correct.

The people have to execute it.

The system has to produce.

And the owner has to measure the results.

When I acquire a company, I don't replace employees because they worked for somebody else.

I replace the people who cannot execute what the business needs.

But once I bring my system into the operation, the performance becomes my responsibility.

Harbaugh is making the coaching changes.

The Mara and Tisch families are funding the operation.

And the Giants still have championship expectations.

The Giants didn't hire John Harbaugh to prove he has a system. They hired him to prove his system can win.

Jay Moxie | Moxie Talk